On the ecological side, the project will develop a high-resolution, dynamic Species Distribution Model (SDM) that predicts daily habitat suitability for whale sharks using SPOT satellite tag data. Environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, and salinity will be integrated from the Copernicus Marine Service to produce near-real-time forecasts at ~10 km2 resolution. This SDM aims to provide an innovative tool for anticipating whale shark presence, ultimately supporting local ecotourism operators and conservation authorities in reducing economic risks and managing tourism pressure more effectively.

Complementing this modelling work, the project includes a qualitative research component that explores how climate variability, particularly changes in whale shark presence associated with ENSO events, affects the livelihoods and practices of local ecotourism operators. Through semi-structured interviews with eco-touristic operators owners involved in whale shark tourism, the study aims to capture the social and economic challenges posed by environmental unpredictability. It will also examine local knowledge, adaptation strategies, and perceptions of sustainability.

By integrating ecological forecasting with community perspectives, this project seeks to contribute to both science-based conservation planning and socially inclusive decision-making. The outcomes will include a publicly accessible forecasting tool, co-developed workshops with stakeholders, and policy briefs aimed at improving marine tourism governance in the region. This interdisciplinary approach can serve as a model for managing ecotourism in other climate-sensitive coastal communities.