The potential distribution range of these four species involves the southwestern Lerma-Chapala watershed and its surrounding mountain formations. This region supplies approximately 70% of the water consumed by the surrounding urban and rural areas. Ambystoma altamirani and Ambystoma rivulare inhabit pine and fir forests near Mexico City and Toluca, areas with a long history of deforestation, land-use change, and urban expansion. Ambystoma lermaense and Ambystoma granulosum live in seasonal or permanent ponds within the valley floor, where roads, farming, highways, and urban sprawl are major drivers of landscape fragmentation.

These human pressures have cascading effects, including pollution, resource overuse, and the introduction of exotic species that threaten the viability of Ambystoma populations and heighten their vulnerability to climate change.

This project aims to examine both the historical and current distribution of these four endangered species, assessing the environmental variables, both natural and anthropogenic, that influence their distribution over the last two decades. Using landscape genetics, we will identify critical areas that allow or hinder gene flow. The main hypothesis is that anthropogenic disturbance is a stronger predictor of gene flow disruption than geographic distance. Results will support evidence-based conservation and management plans for these species, which inhabit one of the most densely populated regions of the country. Understanding the relationship between their genetic structure and the surrounding landscape, including historical and current anthropogenic pressures, is crucial to identifying population isolation events and gene flow corridors. Protecting and restoring these distribution and connectivity areas not only supports Ambystoma species but also contributes to preserving forest cover and water regulation in the central Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.