Agung Hasan Lukman
This project focuses on two species of Castanopsis, C. argentea and C. tungurrut, both listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. In addition, C. argentea is also recognized as one of the few national priority tree species in Indonesia (Hamidi et al. 2019). These keystone species play a critical role in forest ecosystems, contributing to forest structure and function, supporting diverse fauna as a food source, enhancing water retention, and providing socioeconomic benefits such as edible fruits, medicinal properties, and timber resources. However, decades of overexploitation for fruits and wood, coupled with habitat loss due to land-use changes, have led to significant population declines (Barstow and Kartawinata 2018a, 2018b). Accelerating climate change further exacerbates their vulnerability (Lukman et al. 2025), emphasizing the urgent need for targeted conservation and adaptation measures.
The project aims to identify key environmental drivers, project past-present-future habitat suitability, and pinpoint potential climate refugia for two endangered Castanopsis species in Java. To address current presence records concentrated in western Java, field surveys will target underexplored areas in central and eastern Java, focusing on mountainous regions where new populations may be discovered. Assessments of habitat suitability and potential climate refugia will be performed using species distribution models incorporating machine learning and GIS tools to produce robust and actionable insights for these endangered species' conservation.
By identifying key environmental drivers shaping their distribution and mapping potential climate refugia, the project will provide essential insights for prioritizing critical areas for protection and restoration, ensuring the long-term suitability of habitats under changing climate conditions. Additionally, the findings will support the development of assisted regeneration and planting programs, including reforestation, restoration, rehabilitation, reintroduction, and ex-situ collection, suitable to the ecological requirements of these species, implementing recommended conservation strategies to improve their management and distribution. The spatial information on new population locations provided by this project will also serve as a foundation for further necessary research, including population size assessments, regional conservation genetics, and sustainable use studies.